This is part 1 of a 6-part series I will be writing this winter, defining, comparing, and contrasting confidence and the way I see it evolving in 2026.

Confidence - how does it work?
Part 1 - Certainty before Confidence

In my experience, confidence always starts with certainty.

Specific, granular, nitty-gritty, sneakers hit the court Certainty - on 2 distinct levels:

1. Decision-making
2. Technique

... in that order.

1. If your player knows WHAT to do in a specific situation with absolute certainty, they will make a quick decision to do it without hesitation
2. If they know HOW to physically execute the skill/ technique that goes with that decision, and can do it without conscious thought.

Certainty in both of these together creates what I call Concrete Confidence - built on certainty or PROOF that they know what they are doing.

Why this works:

It is far easier to make the decision to shoot with certainty when you're open, if you don't also have the pressure to make every shot you take!

Once you are making the right decision and consistently creating an advantage, refining technique becomes easy.

For example in a shoot/drive situation - with the correct decision your player will either be attempting a wide open shot (easier to make, higher %), or will be creating 5 v 4 advantage for their team with a drive.

AFTER they decide to drive, then they can address another decision to finish vs pass...
If they again make the right decision, they are either finishing a wide open layup, or passing to a wide open teammate - both skills that again are easy to refine technique.

Most coaches approach this in reverse, drilling technique independent from any decisions...
Then when players make decision-based mistakes in competition, Coaches point them back toward more repetition of the isolated skill - but still without decision-making involved (pet peeve of mine).

Here's the take away!
If your player had as many decision-making reps as technique reps - they would make far more progress, and faster - in a way that translated to games.
To get there, we have to build certainty in decisions, and let the player prove to themselves that both the decision and technique work in competition, BEFORE that produces confidence... but only in that specific area!

See you on the court,
Coach BJ

​P.S. Generalized confidence can grow from this, but at that point it is confidence in their ability to master a skill and the process they have gone through repeatedly that produces certainty that they can do it again in the future!